Speaker
Description
Authors: Filip Andersson (Karolinska Institutet), Cecilia Magnusson (Karolinska Institutet), Mats Ramstedt (Karolinska Institutet), Nicola Orsini (Karolinska Institutet), Robert Thiesmeier (Karolinska Institutet), Rosaria Galanti (Karolinska Institutet)
Background: Many countries and jurisdictions have recently adopted more lenient laws concerning cannabis use (decriminalization or legalization). In Sweden cannabis use is still considered a criminal offense, but this stance has been recently debated in the light of the high drug-related mortality in the country. To inform this debate, we conducted a study centered on the following research question: Which would be the most likely change in the prevalence of recreational use of cannabis should it be decriminalized in Sweden?
Methods: Jurisdiction-level data on self-reported cannabis use from 12 countries (across Europe and Australia) and four U.S. states were collected from 1994 and onwards. We included countries that decriminalized cannabis use and reported both pre and post decriminalization measurements. This data was modeled to predict the most likely changes in past 12-month and past 30-day cannabis use following a hypothetical decriminalization in Sweden.
Results: We predicted that in Sweden there would be an immediate modest surge in the prevalence of both past 12-month and past 30-day cannabis use following the hypothetical decriminalization. Longer-term trends differed between these measures. For past 12-month use, the gap in prevalence between scenarios with and without decriminalization gradually narrowed over time. In contrast, for past 30-day use, the gap widened over time.
Discussion: Decriminalizing cannabis use in Sweden would likely lead to an initial increase of self-reported use. The extent to which this reflects a genuine increase or an increased propensity to disclosure remains to be understood. After this initial increase experimental (past 12-month) use tends to stabilize, while recurrent (past 30-day) use may continue to increase, probably indicating an increasing pool of individuals transitioning towards cannabis use disorder. The method we used for this prediction can be easily replicated in other contexts and used to support evidence-based policy decisions.
| Conflict of interest | Non |
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